How to Bet on Political Events
Jeffrey Donaldson MP
|Not everyone knows that today it is possible to bet on practically everything, including the general election. It is now a widespread practice to bet on election results, even if it is not legal everywhere. For example, it is not allowed in the United States, although paradoxically the most followed and important political event in the world is the election of the US president and the main bettors are American or British.
HOW AND WHERE TO BET ON THE GENERAL ELECTION
All the most important online bookmakers now offer the possibility of making bets also with the app for sports betting on non-sporting betting events, of another nature, for example on the political elections of the various international countries. This happens for all the most important and listed betting sites, including even Snai sports bet. In the field of election bets you can find various ways to bet. The classic is to choose the candidate who will become the head of government, like the German Chancellor or the French President. It is also usually possible to bet on which party will win the election and have more seats in the parliamentary assembly, and on some sites it is also possible to bet on the number of men or women to be elected. Much depends on the political importance of the elections: in the most important countries of the world the elections are very much followed by the media, so it will be more likely to find open markets on the elections and more types of bets available. For the smaller and poorer nations we will hardly find the possibility to bet. Obviously this means that the most wealthiest and most popular nation, the United States of America, tends to monopolize the betting sector on the parliamentary elections, and in fact most of the bets in this sector concern the US presidential election.
BETS ON THE US ELECTIONS
This is the most classic example of a popular political betting market. Gambling on US presidential elections has a long and colorful past. Already in the last century, American players were betting huge sums on every presidential election. However, most states have banned bets and federal law prohibits doing its best to stop online bets. But the practice continues today in online gaming houses located outside the United States and has millions of dollars spent on betting transactions. The richest Americans have bet a lot on the 2016 presidential elections. Obviously, this is not just about betting in the strict sense, but also about market forecasts. If you think the Republicans will win, you will probably buy options on how many more defense and energy actions your portfolio can afford. If you think the Democrats will win, buy options on alternative energy and biotechnology. Carlos Slim, the richest man in Mexico and the fifth richest billionaire in the world, lost about 5 billion dollars after Donald Trump was elected president of the United States. Slim did not bet directly against Trump - not officially at least - but he was influenced because the value of the Mexican peso collapsed after the election, resulting in the evaporation of about 9% of Slim's fortune.
GAMBLING ON THE ELECTIONS
Many other people have won or lost money in an instant for the elections in the most traditional way: gambling. It is illegal to bet on US elections on American soil, but gambling on election results is a totally legal game in England. Until November 8th, with practically all the polls that predicted a Hillary Clinton victory, English bookmakers were overwhelmed by bets. "The US election has attracted more bets than any other political gambling game ever in England, with what the bookies estimate at about $ 200 million ($ 247.6 million) of betting," Wall Street reported Journal.
TRUMP'S VICTORY IN THE 2016 ELECTIONS
About three quarters of the bets placed on William Hill were on a Clinton victory in the presidential election. That seemed to be the sure bet, after all the bookmakers gave Trump only a chance of winning 20% at the last election. But Trump bets were obviously winning and some very big bets on Trump's win were extraordinarily well paid. Perhaps the biggest win of all came from the bet placed by a real estate mogul. The magazine Metro (UK) reported that the Iran-British real estate magnate Vincent Tchenguiz has won 1.2 million pounds (1.5 million dollars) thanks to a bet of 350,000 pounds ($ 435,000) on Trump. According to the Independent, an unknown player won £ 500,000 ($ 622,000) on a bet of £ 200,000 ($ 249,000) on Trump, and several six-figure bets were placed on other American candidates. THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH BETS ON ELECTIONS The most interesting thing is perhaps the decision of the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power to pay about $ 1 million in bets before the election. Convinced that Clinton would win, the bookmaker has previously paid bets on the Democratic candidate with the hope of avoiding major losses later. Obviously, the move was not ideal for Paddy Power. "Based on the forecasts we decided to put our neck on the guillotine by paying Hillary Clinton's victory in advance, but we hurt," said Paddy Power spokesman Feilim Mac Un Iomaire. After all these are the risks of the trade.